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- Dr. Patrick Newport
As the world reels from a cascade of economic disruptions, what are the implications for already-overextended supply chains, global sourcing, and potential product scarcities? Could the US be looking at prolonged inflation or even recession? What should we expect from China, both during this fraught period and further out? Will China continue to be the engine that powers global growth, or are there signs of economic slowing beyond restrictions associated with COVID-19? When consumer demand rebounded sharply in 2021 after early-COVID economic contraction, it took economists — and everyone else — by surprise, triggering high transportation costs, shipping congestion, and spillover pressure that won't be dissipating any time soon. Thanks to this demand rebound, global trade grew 12.6 percent in 2021 and —before the Russian invasion of Ukraine — was expected to grow another 4.3 percent this year. Given all that's happened, what are the most likely scenarios for global trade's "next normal?” Pat Newport, who tracks global trade and manages long-term economic forecasts for S&P Global’s macroeconomic service, will tackle this question in an opening presentation, followed by a conversation with Janet Nodar, the JOC’s senior editor for the project breakbulk cargo.