September 18 - 20, 2018
Hamburg, Germany

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

 

 

 
8:00 AM — 5:00 PM
 

Registration

Location: Saal 1-2 Foyer

 
 

 


 
8:00 — 8:45 AM
 

 Welcome Coffee & Tea

Location: Saal 1-2 Foyer

 
 

 
8:45 — 9:00 AM
 

Welcome Remarks

Location: Saal 1-2

 
Chris Brooks
Executive Editor,
The Journal of Commerce and JOC Events,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit

 

Greg Knowler
Europe Editor,
JOC, Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit

 
9:00 — 9:45 AM
 

Keynote Address

Location: Saal 1-2

 
 

 
9:45 — 10:30 AM
 

The Economic Outlook According to IHS Markit:
How Does Europe Measure Up?

Location: Saal 1-2

Notwithstanding broadly unchanged global growth of 3.3 percent in 2018, it's now apparent that Europe won't be able to maintain last year’s buoyant economic growth levels that drove record container volume through its hub ports. IHS Markit’s latest EU and Eurozone GDP growth projections are 2.1 percent in 2018 and 1.7 percent in 2019, slowing from 2017's actual GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2017, Even with domestic resilience among European economies, especially in Germany, external trade risks loom large in the face of US policies. While European governments will continue to retaliate to the trade measures, other countries, most notably China, could look to divert exports originally bound for the US to Europe, posing risks to domestic producers and leading to rising protectionism. But the key variable to watch is the degree of disruption to existing supply chains, including those pertaining to Brexit. Even before any new or extended tariffs are imposed, the mere risk of this happening in the foreseeable future is pushing companies to look for alternatives. This takes time and produces additional costs, including the tightening of available management resources as they deal with such transition tasks rather than growth-enhancing measures to raise productivity or innovative potential. Join Timo Klein, IHS Markit’s principal economist for Western Europe, as he takes the economic temperature of the region and the trade challenges that lie ahead.

 
  — Featured Speaker —
Timo Klein
Principal Economist,
Western Europe,
IHS Markit

 
10:30 — 11:00 AM
 

 Networking Break

Location: Saal 1-2 Foyer

   

 
11:00 AM — 12:15 PM
 

Containerised Shipping Market:
Analysing the Outlook

Location: Saal 1-2

For much of the last decade, carriers could not take advantage of persistently low oil prices because of weak demand and overcapacity that dragged freight rates to record lows. It was only in 2017, after six straight years of losses, that container carriers finally managed to turn a profit. But even as demand recovers and carriers are again in the black, oil prices have suddenly risen to its highest level in four years, and there’s increasing talk about prices reaching $100 a barrel. With Asia-Europe carriers already struggling to effectively deploy the mega-ships flooding into service without destroying freight rates, more expensive bunker fuel will further undermine the cost benefits that are such a key factor when operating these large vessels. There may be some help from the supply-demand balance. IHS Markit’s Trends in the World Economy and Trade forecasts demand for containerized volume on Asia-Europe will grow 3.7 percent this year, a slight decline compared with 2017, before growing at about the same pace in 2019. This is below the expected rise in capacity on the trade that in the first half or 2018 will be around 8 percent, but investment bank Jefferies believes there will be low single-digit capacity growth from the second half of 2018 until 2021 based on a low orderbook. So what will the supply-demand balance be during the peak season and into 2019, and what does a high fuel price future look like for container shipping lines? Will prosperity continue for the carriers or will rising bunker prices and surplus capacity lead to more consolidation that many in the industry believe still has a way to go? This panel of shipping and financial analysts will examine the mounting challenges for the container shipping business over the next year.

 
— Session Chair —
Mark Szakonyi
Executive Editor,
JOC.com and The Journal of Commerce,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit

 

— Panelists —
Anthony J. Firmin
Chief Operating Officer,
Hapag-Lloyd

 

David Kerstens
Equity Analyst,
Jefferies

 

Peter Sand
Chief Shipping Analyst,
BIMCO

 
12:15 — 1:15 PM
 

 Networking Lunch

Location: Saal 1-2 Foyer

 
 

 
1:15 — 2:15 PM
 

Integrated Carriers and Digital Startups:
How Will the Carrier-Forwarder Relationship Evolve?

Location: Saal 1-2

As if consolidation and the redrawing of alliances wasn't enough of a distraction, technology is now driving further and potentially transformational change in container shipping. The rapid development of blockchain and other digital technologies is creating opportunities for companies that in the past focused mainly on core areas of competence to envision a broader role while also working to create new forms of partnerships across platforms and supply chain sectors. This cross-selling of products will introduce an unprecedented level of transparency from carriers and forwarders but it is also being accompanied by a need to provide real and measurable value to shippers to justify service offering. Parties that add limited value are endangered while those that create real value, whether carriers or forwarders, will find a continuing role. In this new world, some carriers are extending their reach into landside operations and end-to-end services. Maersk’s stated objective is to become an integrated provider of global container logistics, linking its container line, forwarder and terminal operator to offer end-to-end solutions. In April, CMA CGM acquired a 25 percent stake in CEVA logistics, MOL Logistics launched a new NVOCC, and Cosco continues to expand its terminal ownership. These moves are taking carriers into sectors once exclusively controlled by logistics providers, creating a different dynamic that may involve cooperation alongside competition.

 
  — Panelists —
Karsten Kildahl
CEO,
Europe,
Maersk Line

 

Graham Parker
CEO and Co-Founder,
Kontainers

 

Ved Prakash
Director,
Sales and Global Supply Chain Management,
Gemini Corporation NV

 
2:15 — 2:45 PM
 

JOC Accelerator:
Disasters at Sea — Cause and Effect

Location: Saal 1-2

It's no exaggeration to say that every container ship is a catastrophe waiting to happen, with obvious impacts on the supply chains of every shipper whose cargo is aboard, not to mention the safety of the crew (five died in the March 6 Maersk Honam fire). Container ship fires now are occurring every 60 days on average, according to the TT Club. Unfortunately, this should be no surprise given how little carriers know about cargo loaded onto their ships, the frequency with which some shippers misdeclare hazardous cargo, the lack of an industrywide safety culture, the inadequacy of effective firefighting capability on even the newest ships, and the inaction by governments tasked with enforcing safety rules. The ever-growing list of catastrophic container ship fires — Maersk Honam this year, APL Austria, MSC Daniella, CSCL Vancouver last year — points to a need for the industry to take a harder look at why these accidents are occurring and what further needs to be done to prevent them. Some believe that just like tougher, industry-imposed requirements on container weight reporting in 2016, the industry should do the same regarding to cargo declarations, though the issue is seen as more complex. In this session, one of the world's leading experts on this topic, Peregrine Storrs-Fox, rick management director at the TT Club, will address this topic.

 
— Speaker Introduction —
Peter Tirschwell
Senior Director, Content,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit

 

 — Panelist —
Peregrine Storrs-Fox
Director,
Risk Management,
TT Club

 
2:45 — 3:15 PM
 

 Networking Break

Location: Saal 1-2 Foyer

   

 3:15 — 4:15 PM
 

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

 
 
         
 

 

 

Navigating Europe's Inland Waterways:
Can the Complex Barge Congestion at Europe's Biggest Ports Finally Be Solved?

Location: Saal 1-2

Asia-Europe shippers have been battling with barge congestion at Rotterdam and Antwerp for years, but after extensive consultation with the container supply chain, Europe's two largest ports are finally taking concrete action to try to address the persistent delays. Finding a solution, however, appears unlikely, at least in the short term. The problem starts with weekly port calls by shipping lines channeled into the same days, creating large exchanges of containers that result in hundreds of barges bouncing from terminal to terminal to fill up with boxes, dropping the cargo off at inland terminals, and returning to do it all over again. The steadily increasing size of ships deployed on the Asia-Europe trade has magnified the problem, with container exchanges per port call often as high as 10,000 TEU and often five or six mega-ships in port at the same time. The port strategy is to improve the scheduling of barge calls at the deep-sea terminals to cut down the excessive traffic that causes bottlenecks, but this will rely heavily on all players in the chain working together and sharing data. One of the bigger challenges includes convincing the multitude of fiercely competitive barge owners running their services that a more digitalised process with access to data held by all parties is the way forward. This high-level panel will examine the barge congestion and the strategies being deployed to tackle it that have been put forward by the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp.

 
— Session Chair —
Greg Knowler
Europe Editor,
JOC, Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit

 

— Panelists —
Hans Buytendijk
Managing Director,
neska Container Line
Dordrech B.V. Netherlands

 

Thijs van den Heuvel
Operations Director,
Combi Terminak Twente

 

Emile Hoogsteden
Vice President,
Containers,
Breakbulk and Logistics,
Port of Rotterdam

 

Pascale Pasmans
Senior Project Leader,
Inland Navigation,
Port of Antwerp

 

Marco van der Schans
Head of Transport Management,
METRO Sourcing International Limited
   

 
 

 

 

What Can Dry Container Shipping Learn from Reefers?

Location: Saal 7-9

The outlook for global refrigerated shipping remains positive, not only in terms of growing volume — seaborne refrigerated cargo carried by container ships and specialized reefer operators combined will exceed 134 million metric tons by 2021, according to Drewry — but also in the quality of data the sector has available. Applications in the reefer trade are centered around visibility and tracking to ensure stable end-to-end control of temperature, enabling temperature-sensitive products to be transported further and for longer periods. Shippers of dry containers don’t have the luxury of knowing where their boxes are at each step of the journey, especially if transshipment is involved. Visibility is milestone based, with each step of the shipment process communicated from the carrier to the forwarder or shipper via EDI, but this means disruption or delays only become known after the fact. So what can dry containers learn from their refrigerated counterparts, and can the technology used by reefers be rolled out to the wider supply chain? Join former Maersk reefer executive Thomas Eskesen as he leads a panel of shippers and carriers who will bring their market perspectives to the discussion.

 
— Session Chair & Presenter —
Thomas Eskesen
Founder,
Eskesen Advisory

 

— Panelists —
Frank Smet
Chief Commercial Officer,
Hamburg Sud

 

Chayenne Wiskerke
Managing Director,
Wiskerske Onions

 4:15 — 5:15 PM
 

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

 
 
         
 

 

 

Europe's Trucking Market Is Tightening:
What It Means for International Goods Movement

Location: Saal 1-2

The freight trucking business in Europe is facing significant challenges over the next few years amid increasing driver shortages, language requirements, cutbacks in hours, and a steady push by lobby groups to shift freight from road to rail for both environmental and safety reasons. The shortage is even spreading to Eastern European countries that were until recently plugging the driver gap in richer western economies. This has serious cost implications for shippers because the falling driver numbers are coming at exactly the wrong time with rising cargo volume generating increasing demand for European trucking. DSV, the Danish forwarder that operates more than 20,000 trucks a day, estimates the European market grew by an estimated 3 to 4 percent in 2017. Truck sales are sky high, and with such solid demand, freight rates for road freight are also on the rise. With trucking holding a 77 percent share of the European freight market, it is both a critical component of most supply chains, and a default mode for shippers and forwarders in times of disruption. Despite the environmental argument against trucking, road freight is here to stay, but the challenges are lining up along with the cost implications for cargo owners. Drivers are getting more expensive and harder to find, fuel prices are rising, the road toll fee structure is changing, as are cabotage rules. There are new licensing proposals, and rail continues to enjoy state subsidies. Should shippers be concerned? How will these issues affect supply chain costs, and should shippers consider scaling down trucking and look at more multi-modal solutions?

 
— Session Chair —
Greg Knowler
Europe Editor,
JOC, Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit

 

— Panelists —
Alex Hoffmann
Managing Director and Co-Founder,
TNX Logistics

 

Mathijs Slangen
Senior Vice President,
Sales and Marketing,
Coyote Logistics Europe
   

 
 

 

 

China-Europe Rail:
Just How Viable Is It?

Location: Saal 7-9

The rail network between China and Europe is certainly attracting its share of containerized cargo, with traffic on the route growing at a furious pace over the past year and also aided by spillover cargo from the space-constrained air freight market. In 2017, train journeys between China and Europe reached to 3,673, up 116 percent over the previous year, and one projection has the volume rising by 15 percent a year for the next 10 years. That’s the good news. The bad news is the bottlenecks have been growing more serious, especially at the Polish-Belarus border, a most popular entry point into Europe for trains from China. The much marketed nine-day transit from Chongqing to Duisburg now takes an average of 15 days, with 25-day transits increasingly common. Also coming into question is the economic viability of the rail freight network, which depends on Chinese subsidies and investment, so what happens when those subsidies are cut down or withdrawn entirely? Can the services offered by forwarders survive? What does it cost to send a container from China to Europe along the rails and should shippers opting for this mode start budgeting for rising freight rates in the future?

 
 — Panelists —
Felix Heger
Vice President,
Head of China Rail and Ocean Freight Europe,
DHL Global Forwarding

 

Pierre Liguori
Managing Director,
Global Logistics and
Supply Chain Management,
Tokema Ltd.

 

Don Miller
Vice President,
Global Sales and Marketing,
Globe Tracker ApS

 
5:15 — 6:30 PM
 

 Networking Reception

Location: Saal 1-2 Foyer

 
 

 

 

 STATEMENT OF JOC CONFERENCE EDITORIAL POLICY:All JOC conference programs are developed independently by the JOC editorial team based on input from a wide variety of industry experts and the editors' own industry knowledge, contacts and experience. The editorial team determines session topics and extends all speaker invitations based entirely on the goal of providing highly relevant content for conference attendees. Certain sponsors may give welcoming remarks or introduce certain sessions, but if a sponsor appears as a bona-fide speaker it will be because of an editorial invitation, not as a benefit of sponsorship. Sponsorship benefits do not include speaking on a program.