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- Dr. Nariman Behravesh
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As of mid-October, concerns about the North American and global economy were mounting as multiple central banks aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation while the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-Covid policy contributed further to a negative economic outlook. “Gradualism has given way to super-sized interest rate increases and a clearer resolve to restrain actual and expected inflation, despite adverse economic consequences,” S&P Global wrote on Sept. 20. Although US containerized imports from Asia were just starting to turn negative — as of August 2022, volumes had been up every month year over year versus 2021 and were up 6 percent year-to-date from 2021 and 27 percent versus 2019. But senior industry executives who have spoken to The Journal of Commerce were clearly worried about the outlook for the next 12 to 18 months. On the global front, S&P Global Market Intelligence is forecasting global real GDP growth to slow from 5.8 percent in 2021 to 2.8 percent in 2022 and 2.0 percent in 2023. As he has done each year at TPM since 2015, award-winning economist Dr. Nariman Behravash will present his plain-spoken but highly informed view of the economic outlook and what it means for international logistics and supply chains.